The ground was given as good at Great Yarmouth on Tuesday morning ahead of the first day of their feature September meeting, but there was rain forecast throughout the day and conditions are likely to be no better than good to soft for today’s card.
The feature contest is the listed John Musker Fillies’ Stakes over ten furlongs. John Gosden and Roger Varian have won six of the last seven renewals and both are represented this afternoon in what looks a competitive renewal.
Technique is the highest rated filly in the field, but she only has a Novice win to her name and she may well be forced to cover ground from stall twelve. Sweet Believer (2.15) is improving at a rate of knots and put up a personal best when upped to 9f for the first time at Hamilton last time.
The selection – 3s from 7/2 with William Hill – is out of a 10f winner and there is no reason why she shouldn’t improve again for the additional furlong. I hope to see the outstanding Tom Marquand get into a good early position from stall one although he will need luck in running in the home straight. The filly is proven on good to soft although her ability to handle soft or heavy ground is unproven – disappointed at heavy ground on debut.
If there is significant overnight rain, then Chance (3.20) must have a leading one in the mile handicap for Simon and Ed Crisford. The selection – 3s from 4s with Boylesports – was well held returning from over 200 days off the track at Newbury last month, but he is entitled to come on for the run and every drop of rain is considered a plus. Market leaders Ajyaal and Dejame Paso will look vulnerable if the rain arrives and I believe the former would be best served by seven furlongs rather than a mile.
Rain also due at Beverley on Tuesday and conditions are likely to also be on the soft side of good if they get the rain the forecast would suggest. The concluding extended mile classified stakes (0-55) for apprentices wouldn’t normally be my cup of tea but I do feel that if Mac Ailey (4.45) can get out on terms he is well served by the conditions of the race, and he can gain just a second win on his thirty second start. There was 4s about on Tuesday evening but that didnt last long and he is 9/4 with 10Bet at the time of posting on Tuesday evening.
Tim Easterby’s five-year-old looked ready for a drop back in trip when fading close home at Ripon over 10 furlongs last time. His apprentice Ryan Sexton has also been knocking on the door of late with a second and third from his last four mounts. Sexton has yet to ride a winner in Britain but has a couple of winners in his native Ireland.
There is a terrific card at Sandown and, if conditions are no worse than good to soft, I hope to see Dual Identity (4.40) return to winning ways dropped back to 10f the distance of his impressive Salisbury win on his penultimate start.
This is a big day for connections of Dual Identity as they also run the admirable Sir Busker in the listed race earlier in the card. Dual Identity looked a non stayer over 12f at Kempton last time but travelled through the race like the best horse in the race. As a son of Belardo you would have thought that he would appreciate soft ground, but that is not confirmed by the formbook just yet although his disappointing run at Lingfield earlier in the campaign was over a trip too far. The each way recommendation is 8s with 10Bet.
I have been waiting for the reappearance of Harston (5.10) since she did us a favour at Lingfield – turf – back in July. The success was gained over an extended 11f, and the runner up was a fluent scorer at Chelmsford last week. The filly was taken out of a race at Epsom last week on account of the fast ground, but conditions should be fine today, but i must admit to being slightly surprised she is dropping back down in distance.
One can only conclude that connections feel she will have the necessary pace on this stiff track, and she was taken out of a similar fillies only event over 12f at Yarmouth on Thursday at the 48-hour stage. The selection is 11/4 with William Hill.