Good ground at Warwick for today’s card. The band of rain due to hit most of Britain on Wednesday does not now look as if it will bring significant precipitation.
Northern Bound has been raised 7lbs for beating Fat Sam by the best part of 10L at Bangor-on-Dee last time and he has been put in a short price (11/8) to defy his career high mark. His previous chase start at Worcester produced a narrow win from El Paso Wood and David Pipe’s busy 8-y-old has won two of the eights starts he has had since that defeat in June.
Fat Sam is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time but looked reluctant to race here last month. If the headgear works the oracle, it would be no surprise were he to reverse the form with Northern Bound at a track where he is yet to finish out of the frame in three starts.
Galice Macalo was brushed aside by Jamacho at Uttoxeter on Sunday and Le Cameleon may need softer ground for the Jane Williams stable although he has gone well fresh in the past.
The vote goes to the 11-y-old MARRACUDJA who was rated in the 150s in his pomp bur has dropped to a feasible looking mark. He was beginning to make his move when clouting one down the far side at Stratford when last seen in the spring and is 3lbs lower this afternoon.
He won a Hunter Chase on ground softer than ideal at Leicester last spring before taking his chance in the Aintree Foxhunters. This 2m 4f trip is on the sharp side and he is the outsider of the five-runner field, but he should have the race run to suit and gets the each way vote.
Recommendation: Marracudja EW at 11/2 with William Hill
Kinondu Kwetu has done us a couple of favours in recent weeks and a 7lbs penalty is unlikely to prevent him landing his five-timer, but he is short enough in the betting at Evens and Trixster and Judge Earl – on the revised terms – are big dangers.
The concluding 2m 3f handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys is a belter and Sheldon is a horse I am convinced is well treated. He has had a wind operation since last seen in the spring and this intermediate trip is ideal. Seamus Mullins has his string in excellent shape and a check of the market is advised.
GUERNESEY hasonly won one of 17 startsand that was from a 7lbs higher mark at Exeter this time last year, but he ran some excellent races in defeat including over today’s C&D and the stable’s conditional Jack Martin takes off a valuable 10lbs.Philip Hobbshad a welcome winner at Bangor last week and the greyhasbits of form last season – seconds to An Tailliur and Highway One O Two – that make him look very well treated.
Martin can do 9st 7lbs so there will be lots of lead in the saddle of the 6-y-old, but he gets the each way vote in a race which is likely to throw up plenty of winners this autumn.
Recommendation: Guernesey EW at 11/2 with William Hill
Brian Hughes was in the saddle for Charlie Longsdon when RARE EDITION made a winning debut in a Bumper at Southwell back in the spring and the runner up – Itso Fury – easily landed the odds on his hurdles debut last month.
Hughes keeps the ride for the hurdles debut of this half-brother to Gordon Elliot’s useful chaser Pencilfulloflead and the selection will get further than the minimum trip in time. This looks a good starting point for the 5-y-old who cost connections £45,000 after finishing runner up in the second of his Irish points.
Christian Williams gives Camulus his first start over timber and he cost £105,000 after finishing second in his sole point in Ireland back in October. He was a beaten market leader when fourth at Taunton in his sole Bumper back in the spring and, too, will appreciate further in time. I just favour the Longsdon runner with the stable in good form.
Recommendation: Rare Edition at
YAGAN appeared to not quite get home when upped to two miles but appreciate the return to 1m 6f when scoring readily at Southwell last time and a 5lbs rise looks fair for that emphatic success. He must transfer that tapeta run back onto polytrack at Chelmsford this evening, but he has won on the surface although has never raced at this evening’s track.
The market is headed by Schwartz who has won his last four and is unbeaten under this evening’s rider George Rooke. He is only 4lbs higher than when scoring over C&D last time which is more than fair, but I just favour Yagan in a cracking staying handicap.
Recommendation: Yagan 11/4 at William Hill