Good ground at Ascot at the time of writing although there was significant rain due on Friday afternoon/early evening although it is forecast to be dry Saturday.
2.25 Ascot
Hamish deserves to head the market for the 12f Cumberland Lodge Stakes on the back of his excellent second to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger last time. He must carry a 3lbs penalty for his Group 3 success at Chester back in the spring and he will appreciate the forecast rain. Pat Dobbs takes over in the saddle and the pair are defending an unbeaten record having scored at Kempton in the September Stakes last year.
Richard Kingscote rode Hamish and CRESTA last time out but he is claimed to ride at Newmarket and David Probert takes over on Martyn Meade’s three-year-old who ran a career best at Windsor last time when putting 6l between himself and the second. That race was run at a strong gallop and there is no guaranteed pace in the race which is a concern for his supporters and Probert given the selection can pull for his head.
One could argue Hamish’s best form is over further and he could, arguably, try and make all. It promises to be a tremendous race with the disappointing High Definition a fascinating Irish raider.
Recommendation: Cresta EW at 11/2 with Boylesports
3.00 Ascot
Rohann has won three of his four starts at Ascot and is a worthy market leader in the Bengough Stakes and he goes in any ground. AL SUHAIL has never finished out of the first three on ground with the word soft in the official description and I am looking forward to seeing him drop back to 6f for the first time in his career.
The each way recommendation was readily brushed aside by Kinross at Doncaster last time over an additional furlong, but he travelled well in the lead and is well worth a try at sprinting. It is possible that he will just help set the race up for the closers and it is hard to make all at Ascot on the straight course, but he will enjoy the cut in the ground and at 8/1 looks to have been overlooked by the layers.
Recommendation: Al Suhail EW at 8/1 with William Hill 4 places
2.42 Newmarket
There was also plenty of rain due overnight at Newmarket where the ground was described as good on Friday morning. The feature race is the group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies & mares over the Rowley Mile.
SAFFRON BEACH loomed up, seemingly, going very well at Leopardstown last time, but could not get past Pearls Galore under Hollie Doyle. William Buick returns to the saddle today and I expect him to be very positive on the filly and repel the late challenge of Homeless Songs who would not want the forecast rain.
The selection made all to land the corresponding race 12 months ago when she beat Mother Earth and Buick is unbeaten in three starts on Jane Chapple-Hyam’s 4-y-old who gives 3lbs to the three-year-olds. Dermot Weld fits Irish Guineas winner Homeless Songs with a tongue tie for the first time.
Recommendation: Saffron Beach at 13/8 with William Hill
4.00 Longchamp
Anmaat heads the market for the Gp 2 Prix Dollar but there was significant rain forecast overnight and his ability to handle soft/heavy ground in Paris would have to be taken on trust.
ADDEYBB is obviously not the force of old at eight, but this former Champion Stakes winner cannot have the ground too soft and there might just be one last hurrah in the William Haggas trained gelding. He has not been at his best in a light campaign so far this year but neither start was on his favoured soft ground, and he might just surprise one or two of his younger rivals.
Recommendation: Addeyb EW at 7/1 with William Hill 4 places
4.35 Longchamp
Erevann lost his unbeaten record when third in theG1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last timeunder Christophe Soumillon who was in the headlines for the wrong reasons at Saint-Cloud on Friday.
The 3-y-old has a win to his name on heavy ground but I’m not convinced that was a vintage Group 1 and preference is for THE REVENANT who is partnered for the first time by Christophe Lemaire with regular pilot Soumillon on the market leader. I hope it is a day for the Golden Oldies at Longchamp given the 7-y-old finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago when looking for a third successive win in the race.
The gelding has won two of three starts so far this term but was slightly disappointing when only third in the Moulin here last month although that race was run on fast ground – certainly not the good to soft as per the official description. Today’s slower conditions will suit, and he gets the nod.
Recommendation; The Revenant at 7/2 with William Hill
